Software and Probability Excercise

I recently spent some time revising probability calculations, and thought about how to apply that knowledge to help me in some way. I also have future plans to write some bioinformatics code, so this project is a stone for two birds; applying probability and coding for graphs.

Applying probability

finding the probability of the bus being on time, or that a certain number of people are in the library on a certain day, or any other idea that gives me a time restraint is hard to track properly due to my schedule. To circumvent this, I came up with finding the probability of something that I can measure at my leisure, and is relatively simple in terms of dependant variables.

Context

Valorant is a first-person shooter where characters you can play have special abilities. The special ability of the agent Iso brings you and an enemy into a pocket dimension for you to fight one on one. There is only the two combatants, and three barriers, one in front of the enemy and two on either side of Iso.

The possible outcomes

In this arena, from iso’s perspective, the enemy’s choices can be boiled down to five outcomes: moving left, moving right, moving backward moving forward or staying still. There are technically infinite variants since footsteps can be heard and used to confuse someone since you can run left and walk quietly right for a feint or do any manner of different thing in a bizarre or slightly variated fashion, but my end goal is to just find the most common outcome for general direction.

The graph

the software I used was just basic formulas in google sheets, which allow me to just increase the number of a direction I measured and then have the probability be calculated through the premade formula. The code I want to make for my other project was supposed to be in python, but using sheets was not only quicker, but I can also embedd it into this website to update around the clock, so for anyone interested, you can watch me actively use the law of large numbers to increase the accuracy of this graph with time.

that’s about it, take care